Project too Large to use Three Point Estimates for Risk Management?
Recently I received a question from Michael Floriani PMP, a previous participant from my Risk Management class. He agreed with one of the premises in the training class, that use of Three Point Estimates is a good Risk Management tool. After the class and back in the work environment Michael was challenged with a blanket application of Three Point Estimates given the size of his projects. He followed up with me and his question and my response are below:
Our projects are composed of many activities and, as a result, the project schedules are very large. In determining the durations using a Three Point Estimate (and altering the formula to fit our environment), it would be extremely time-consuming to obtain the Optimistic, Most-Likely and Pessimistic values for each task.